Week Four Update

1. Utah proved me wrong last week. I predicted a loss for the Utes, but they came through with a last-minute touchdown to beat Air Force 30-23. Their defense played very well in limiting the Falcons' option running attack. Something doesn't sit right with this team yet. They're winning, which is all that really matters, but it seems like their offense is kind of staggering, especially Brian Johnson. What they need is a game like what I'm predicting this week. Week Five prediction: Utah 56, Weber State 10.

2. You'll notice that the Utes are also #1 in the Joe Rankings after four weeks. There are a couple of key factors: a)They've won all of their games, three of which were on the road. Their schedule will begin to balance out a little bit. b)UNLV beating Arizona State and Iowa State helps them a lot. All in all, their game against Weber State probably won't help them too much this week. I expect them to fall from the top spot, but to still retain a spot in the top 5.

3. BYU recorded their second straight shutout with a 44-0 beatdown of Wyoming. I only saw a little bit of the game, but they were clicking, as usual. Other than the Utah game at the end of last year, I haven't attended or seen an exciting game in Provo for years. They have been incredibly dominant at home.

4. BYU has risen to only #30 in my rankings despite the national hype that is now surrounding the program. The reasons for their low ranking are that three of their four games have been at home. BYU has a jumble of big road games late in the season, so if BYU keeps winning, their push up the Joe Rankings will be over the second half of the season. BYU has a bye this week before a road game at Utah State and a home game against New Mexico over the next two weeks. Don't expect them to rise too quickly.

5. If the season were to end today, this is what I think the BCS pairings would be:

National Championship Game: USC v. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Missouri v. BYU
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Penn State
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest v. South Florida

Since the games last week, Oregon is dropped from the Rose Bowl after their loss to Boise State, and the Granddaddy of them all is happy to replace them with the Gators. Penn State, meanwhile, moves into the national spotlight with a strong start to the season, and they get invited to the Sugar Bowl (though the Fiesta Bowl would take a good long hard look at the Nittany Lions). The Orange Bowl gets the short end of the stick so far this year, though there is still time for them to hope for a Clemson or Virginia Tech resurgence.