With college football camps opening for the 2010 college football season, it is time to begin unveiling my new Program Rankings, along with a small Week One preview. Keep in mind, these are not my preseason rankings...these reflect the last five seasons, which is a solid representation of where a program lies (in my opinion). Anything past five years ago shouldn't be factored in. Here goes nothing:
Sun Belt Conference:
1. Troy (54 overall)
2. Middle Tennessee State (61 overall)
3. Florida Atlantic (72 overall)
4. Louisiana-Lafayette (84 overall)
5. Arkansas State (88 overall)
6. Louisiana-Monroe (105 overall)
7. North Texas (114 overall)
8. Florida International (117 overall)
9. Western Kentucky (120 overall)
Though the program rankings are adjusted week to week, there likely won't be any changes after Week One within the Sun Belt. The only possible change would be Arkansas State leapfrogging UL-Lafayette with an upset miracle victory at Auburn.
The Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee have the most winnable game against a BCS foe, as they host Minnesota. (Props to the Gophers, by the way, for having the guts to play a Sun Belt team on the road). MTSU has experience defeating favored squads--just ask Maryland, who lost to them in both 2008 and 2009. The team from Murfreesboro doesn't have the track record to overtake Troy yet in the 5-year program rankings, but they do start the 2010 season as the highest-ranked Sun Belt team (#63), and they are my favorites to win the 2010 Sun Belt championship.
Despite winning the conference a year ago, Troy will start the 2010 season a couple of spots behind the Blue Raiders at #65 overall. They will be favored in their opening match at home against Bowling Green.
The most winnable road game will be played by Florida Atlantic when they travel to Conference USA opponent Alabama-Birmingham.
UL-Lafayette, North Texas, and Western Kentucky will join the afore-mentioned Arkansas State in collecting BCS payouts to heavily-favored teams on the road. They play at Georgia, Clemson, and Nebraska, respectively.
UL-Monroe and Florida International have byes in Week One. I'm sure their coaches are telling the media that the bye week comes at the perfect time (hypothetically assuming, of course, that there is actual media that covers UL-Monroe and Florida International).
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Great day for sports
1. What a great week for college football! Before I do any BYU or Utah analysis, here is a quick recapitulation:
ACC: The biggest winner was Georgia Tech, who defeated Duke 49-10. The victory puts them in the ACC Championship Game. Their last regular season game is against Georgia in two weeks.
Clemson appears to be the most likely opponent in the championship game. They won at North Carolina State 43-23, and a win next week versus Virginia would clinch it.
It doesn't appear that the ACC will get any at-large BCS consideration after Miami lost at North Carolina. Their one hope to get two teams into the BCS would be Georgia Tech losing the ACC championship game and getting a lucky bid.
Big XII: In the Game of the Week, Oklahoma State won at home over Texas Tech, 24-17. Though the Cowboys are out of luck as far as making it to the Big XII Championship Game, they have a chance to make a strong case for at-large BCS consideration. If they win their last two games against Colorado and at Oklahoma, they should be in.
Meanwhile, Texas stayed a game up on OSU by routing Baylor on the road. One more win will clinch their spot in the Big XII title game, and it should happen next week against Kansas.
In the weaker North Division, Nebraska stayed on top with a win at Kansas. They host Kansas State next week in a game that could determine the division champion.
Big East: Cincinnati kept their perfect season going by beating West Virginia on Friday night, and sets up a huge Big East finale when they play at Pittsburgh in two weeks, a game which will determine who goes to the BCS. The loser is unlikely to grab an at-large bid. Pittsburgh, for their part, made the game much more interesting after dispatching Notre Dame. The Big East has really rebounded from a poor performance in 2008.
Big 10: The Ohio State Buckeyes clinched at least a share of the Big 10 championship after beating Iowa 27-24. They wrap up their season next week at rivals Michigan, but even if they lose, they own the tiebreaker and will go to the Rose Bowl.
In other games, Wisconsin defeated Michigan, while Penn State beat Indiana. Both schools kept alive their hopes for at-large BCS consideration.
Conference USA: Houston's slim BCS hopes were demolished after losing at Central Florida 37-32. The Cougars now find themselves in second place in the C-USA West Division, trailing SMU in the standings. The Mustangs defeated UTEP 35-31, and they now control their own destiny to the C-USA Championship Game.
Pac 10: Last week, I projected that Oregon State would get the automatic bid from the Pac 10 by winning the championship. They still control their own destiny after hammering Washington over the weekend.
But the big news was Stanford trouncing USC at the Coliseum, 55-21. After dominating nearly the entire decade, the Trojans will now be lucky to get to the Las Vegas Bowl in 2009.
SEC: All that mattered was that Florida and Alabama kept winning to set up the best SEC Championship Game of all time. They held serve with road wins against South Carolina and Mississippi State, respectively. I was way off on my MSU over Alabama prediction.
Sun Belt: Troy had a chance to give the Sun Belt Conference some national respect, but they got obliterated by Arkansas, 55-20. The Trojans can clinch the conference title by winning either of their last two games.
WAC: Boise State probably won't get an automatic BCS bid now since TCU looks to be well on their way to clinching the non-BCS spot. But Boise took care of business, destroying in-state "rival" Idaho 63-25.
But it is Nevada that is raising some eyebrows right now. After a slow start, they dominated Fresno State over the last three quarters, winning 52-14 to stay atop the WAC standings. Maybe Boise State should be more concerned with winning their conference than dealing with the BCS right now.
2. Real Salt Lake of Sandy is the Eastern Conference champions! They defeated the Chicago Fire on the road, 5-4 in a shootout after a 0-0 draw in 120 minutes of regulation and extra time. Real Salt Lake could be the first champion of a major professional sport from the state of Utah. They play the Los Angeles Galaxy for the title next weekend.
3. Back to college football, the new rankings are out. Here is what the BCS would look like if the season ended today:
National Championship Game:
Florida vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:
Texas vs. TCU
Orange Bowl:
Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Sugar Bowl:
Penn State vs. Pittsburgh
I think the two at-large spots go to Sugar Bowl, where they pit former rivals against each other to create an intriguing match-up. They get criticized for passing on Boise State, but they want the most money, and there is also pressure from the Big Six Conferences to pick a team from an auto-qualifying conference.
Oklahoma State and Stanford are also left out.
ACC: The biggest winner was Georgia Tech, who defeated Duke 49-10. The victory puts them in the ACC Championship Game. Their last regular season game is against Georgia in two weeks.
Clemson appears to be the most likely opponent in the championship game. They won at North Carolina State 43-23, and a win next week versus Virginia would clinch it.
It doesn't appear that the ACC will get any at-large BCS consideration after Miami lost at North Carolina. Their one hope to get two teams into the BCS would be Georgia Tech losing the ACC championship game and getting a lucky bid.
Big XII: In the Game of the Week, Oklahoma State won at home over Texas Tech, 24-17. Though the Cowboys are out of luck as far as making it to the Big XII Championship Game, they have a chance to make a strong case for at-large BCS consideration. If they win their last two games against Colorado and at Oklahoma, they should be in.
Meanwhile, Texas stayed a game up on OSU by routing Baylor on the road. One more win will clinch their spot in the Big XII title game, and it should happen next week against Kansas.
In the weaker North Division, Nebraska stayed on top with a win at Kansas. They host Kansas State next week in a game that could determine the division champion.
Big East: Cincinnati kept their perfect season going by beating West Virginia on Friday night, and sets up a huge Big East finale when they play at Pittsburgh in two weeks, a game which will determine who goes to the BCS. The loser is unlikely to grab an at-large bid. Pittsburgh, for their part, made the game much more interesting after dispatching Notre Dame. The Big East has really rebounded from a poor performance in 2008.
Big 10: The Ohio State Buckeyes clinched at least a share of the Big 10 championship after beating Iowa 27-24. They wrap up their season next week at rivals Michigan, but even if they lose, they own the tiebreaker and will go to the Rose Bowl.
In other games, Wisconsin defeated Michigan, while Penn State beat Indiana. Both schools kept alive their hopes for at-large BCS consideration.
Conference USA: Houston's slim BCS hopes were demolished after losing at Central Florida 37-32. The Cougars now find themselves in second place in the C-USA West Division, trailing SMU in the standings. The Mustangs defeated UTEP 35-31, and they now control their own destiny to the C-USA Championship Game.
Pac 10: Last week, I projected that Oregon State would get the automatic bid from the Pac 10 by winning the championship. They still control their own destiny after hammering Washington over the weekend.
But the big news was Stanford trouncing USC at the Coliseum, 55-21. After dominating nearly the entire decade, the Trojans will now be lucky to get to the Las Vegas Bowl in 2009.
SEC: All that mattered was that Florida and Alabama kept winning to set up the best SEC Championship Game of all time. They held serve with road wins against South Carolina and Mississippi State, respectively. I was way off on my MSU over Alabama prediction.
Sun Belt: Troy had a chance to give the Sun Belt Conference some national respect, but they got obliterated by Arkansas, 55-20. The Trojans can clinch the conference title by winning either of their last two games.
WAC: Boise State probably won't get an automatic BCS bid now since TCU looks to be well on their way to clinching the non-BCS spot. But Boise took care of business, destroying in-state "rival" Idaho 63-25.
But it is Nevada that is raising some eyebrows right now. After a slow start, they dominated Fresno State over the last three quarters, winning 52-14 to stay atop the WAC standings. Maybe Boise State should be more concerned with winning their conference than dealing with the BCS right now.
2. Real Salt Lake of Sandy is the Eastern Conference champions! They defeated the Chicago Fire on the road, 5-4 in a shootout after a 0-0 draw in 120 minutes of regulation and extra time. Real Salt Lake could be the first champion of a major professional sport from the state of Utah. They play the Los Angeles Galaxy for the title next weekend.
3. Back to college football, the new rankings are out. Here is what the BCS would look like if the season ended today:
National Championship Game:
Florida vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:
Texas vs. TCU
Orange Bowl:
Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Sugar Bowl:
Penn State vs. Pittsburgh
I think the two at-large spots go to Sugar Bowl, where they pit former rivals against each other to create an intriguing match-up. They get criticized for passing on Boise State, but they want the most money, and there is also pressure from the Big Six Conferences to pick a team from an auto-qualifying conference.
Oklahoma State and Stanford are also left out.
Mailbag, Predictions, Basketball, Oh my!
1. Mailbag!! I love it when people comment or email me. This email is courtesy of my brother, Rob. He lives in Las Vegas and is a huge UNLV fan.
"i think unlv has a chance against utah! love ya, rob"
I would have to disagree with Rob, since Utah already defeated UNLV this season, 35-15.
2. But maybe Rob was talking about basketball? After Utah lost at home to the Idaho Vandals yesterday, 94-87, it wouldn't shock me in the least if UNLV defeats the Utes a couple of times this season.
Meanwhile, BYU showed off their deep bench with a 70-60 win over MVC foe Bradley. Jimmer Fredette showed that he is not going to shy away from preseason expectations, scoring 25 points. I'm excited to see how this team gels.
On a side note, Bradley is the name of my nephew-in-waiting. My brother Ryan and his wife Erin are expecting his arrival in early December. They live in Chubbuck, Idaho.
3. Huge game tonight in the Mountain West Conference. The Utah/TCU football game has been kind of a tough game to figure out. I know who I am rooting for; thats not an issue. But I'm trying to figure out who I think will win.
From a strict football perspective, it is obvious that TCU has played better than Utah this season. Over the last four games, the Horned Frogs have beaten Colorado State by 38 points; BYU by 31 points in Provo; UNLV by 41 points; and San Diego State on the road by 43 points. Their win at Air Force earlier in the year was by only 3 points, but it is somewhat deceiving because the Falcons scored a touchdown with just seconds remaining to make the score closer. And their win at Clemson--even though it was by only four points--is looking better and better each week as Clemson contends for the ACC championship. They are 9-0 and ranked #6 in The Joe Rankings (#4 in the meaningless BCS standings).
Utah, too, has had a great season thus far. They are 5-0 in the Mountain West, tied atop the standings with TCU. They are 8-1 overall with their lone blemish a 7-point loss at Oregon in a game that they really should have won. But they only come in at #27 in The Joe Rankings because many of their wins have been ugly. It seems that elite teams should beat the dregs of Division I by 30-40 points, like TCU has been doing. But Utah has just been getting by.
They beat #103 Utah State by 18 points, not really putting a stamp on the victory until late in the third quarter. They were tied 7-7 in the fourth quarter at #102 San Jose State, eventually winning by just 10 points. At #94 Colorado State, the Utes were down 17-3 in the third quarter, and didn't take the lead until 3:40 left in the game, winning by 7 points. A couple of games later at home, they squeaked by #45 Air Force in overtime. The next week against #81 Wyoming, the Utes were down 10-9 going into the fourth quarter before escaping with a 12-point win.
Dont get me wrong. Im not alleging that Utah is a mediocre team. Quite to the contrary, they have proven themselves a great team, as only great teams can play sloppy and still come away with win after win after win. Utahs defense is elite. Putting the Oregon loss aside, Utah hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game (and even in their loss at Oregon, they only gave up 24).
Clearly, the difference between TCU and Utah is that Utah's offense is holding the Utes back, while the Horned Frogs' offense has taken off. Utah was struggling with Terrance Cain at quarterback, and now they are starting true freshman Jordan Wynn behind center. Though he has looked pretty good in six quarters of play, his success has come against Wyoming and New Mexico, which arent even on the same orbit as TCUs defense.
I expect Utah's defense to hold TCU to 24 points. Their defense will be fired up in the underdog role. Kyle Whittingham will come up with a great game plan to stifle Andy Dalton. The Horned Frogs will be too amped up with the new uniforms, the sellout crowd, and the high national attention with their #4 BCS ranking and the ESPN College Gameday appearance on campus. But they will settle down and end up with 24 points.
Unfortunately for Utah, extreme motivation and getting pumped up can only take you so far on the offensive side of the ball. On offense, you want execution, cool-headedness, and consistency, which don't easily come with a freshman quarterback on the road against one of the nation's best defenses in the Game of the Week. Eddie Wide has filled in admirably all season long for the injured Matt Asiata, but he is by no means a superstar of the caliber of which the Horned Frogs haven't already faced (and stopped). The receivers will be facing the best defensive secondary that they've seen all season, and there will be no room for error from Wynn.
Their offense has enough talent in Wynn, Wide, Shaky Smithson, Sausan Shakerin, David Reed, and Jereme Brooks that they should be able to put points on the board. Especially since we all know that Whittingham will pull out two or three crazy trick plays that will generate some yardage. But they won't be able to get enough.
If Utah wants to win, I think the big first step is to score first. This will kick the crowd in the gut, put even more pressure on Dalton, and give Utah's defense even more motivation. That is my ultra-generic Key To The Game, brought to you by my friend Ron Boone.
Predicted Final Score: TCU 24, Utah 13.
Additional season-ending predictions to ruin my spot-on analysis above: With Alabama losing at Mississippi State this weekend, Texas Christian jumps to #3 in the BCS standings and hopes for an upset somewhere along the way to either Florida or Texas that would get them into the BCS National Championship Game. The hype will be overwhelming, but will all come crashing down the next week during a blizzardy afternoon on the high plains of Laramie in the biggest upset in MWC history. Boise State then throws a parade for their BCS inclusion until they lose the next week to Nevada to finish second place in the WAC. Houston wins out, gets the surprise BCS bid, wins Case Keenum a Heisman Trophy, and embarrasses non-BCS schools everywhere by storming the field after scoring on a Boise State-like hook-and-ladder on the last play of the Sugar Bowl in a 79-7 loss to Alabama. BYU makes their fifth straight appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl, where they lose 20-14 to Arizona. Utah goes to the Armed Forces Bowl, where their bowl winning streak stays alive with an impressive 16-15 come-from-behind victory over Stanford. TCU loses to Nevada in the Poinsettia Bowl, 49-48. Bummers all around.
4. BYU will defeat New Mexico today 42-21. Big early lead, lot of subs in a sloppy second half, and the Lobos will show us exactly why they are #117 in the Joe Rankings. This will set up a big set of games in Provo for the Cougars against Air Force and Utah.
"i think unlv has a chance against utah! love ya, rob"
I would have to disagree with Rob, since Utah already defeated UNLV this season, 35-15.
2. But maybe Rob was talking about basketball? After Utah lost at home to the Idaho Vandals yesterday, 94-87, it wouldn't shock me in the least if UNLV defeats the Utes a couple of times this season.
Meanwhile, BYU showed off their deep bench with a 70-60 win over MVC foe Bradley. Jimmer Fredette showed that he is not going to shy away from preseason expectations, scoring 25 points. I'm excited to see how this team gels.
On a side note, Bradley is the name of my nephew-in-waiting. My brother Ryan and his wife Erin are expecting his arrival in early December. They live in Chubbuck, Idaho.
3. Huge game tonight in the Mountain West Conference. The Utah/TCU football game has been kind of a tough game to figure out. I know who I am rooting for; thats not an issue. But I'm trying to figure out who I think will win.
From a strict football perspective, it is obvious that TCU has played better than Utah this season. Over the last four games, the Horned Frogs have beaten Colorado State by 38 points; BYU by 31 points in Provo; UNLV by 41 points; and San Diego State on the road by 43 points. Their win at Air Force earlier in the year was by only 3 points, but it is somewhat deceiving because the Falcons scored a touchdown with just seconds remaining to make the score closer. And their win at Clemson--even though it was by only four points--is looking better and better each week as Clemson contends for the ACC championship. They are 9-0 and ranked #6 in The Joe Rankings (#4 in the meaningless BCS standings).
Utah, too, has had a great season thus far. They are 5-0 in the Mountain West, tied atop the standings with TCU. They are 8-1 overall with their lone blemish a 7-point loss at Oregon in a game that they really should have won. But they only come in at #27 in The Joe Rankings because many of their wins have been ugly. It seems that elite teams should beat the dregs of Division I by 30-40 points, like TCU has been doing. But Utah has just been getting by.
They beat #103 Utah State by 18 points, not really putting a stamp on the victory until late in the third quarter. They were tied 7-7 in the fourth quarter at #102 San Jose State, eventually winning by just 10 points. At #94 Colorado State, the Utes were down 17-3 in the third quarter, and didn't take the lead until 3:40 left in the game, winning by 7 points. A couple of games later at home, they squeaked by #45 Air Force in overtime. The next week against #81 Wyoming, the Utes were down 10-9 going into the fourth quarter before escaping with a 12-point win.
Dont get me wrong. Im not alleging that Utah is a mediocre team. Quite to the contrary, they have proven themselves a great team, as only great teams can play sloppy and still come away with win after win after win. Utahs defense is elite. Putting the Oregon loss aside, Utah hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game (and even in their loss at Oregon, they only gave up 24).
Clearly, the difference between TCU and Utah is that Utah's offense is holding the Utes back, while the Horned Frogs' offense has taken off. Utah was struggling with Terrance Cain at quarterback, and now they are starting true freshman Jordan Wynn behind center. Though he has looked pretty good in six quarters of play, his success has come against Wyoming and New Mexico, which arent even on the same orbit as TCUs defense.
I expect Utah's defense to hold TCU to 24 points. Their defense will be fired up in the underdog role. Kyle Whittingham will come up with a great game plan to stifle Andy Dalton. The Horned Frogs will be too amped up with the new uniforms, the sellout crowd, and the high national attention with their #4 BCS ranking and the ESPN College Gameday appearance on campus. But they will settle down and end up with 24 points.
Unfortunately for Utah, extreme motivation and getting pumped up can only take you so far on the offensive side of the ball. On offense, you want execution, cool-headedness, and consistency, which don't easily come with a freshman quarterback on the road against one of the nation's best defenses in the Game of the Week. Eddie Wide has filled in admirably all season long for the injured Matt Asiata, but he is by no means a superstar of the caliber of which the Horned Frogs haven't already faced (and stopped). The receivers will be facing the best defensive secondary that they've seen all season, and there will be no room for error from Wynn.
Their offense has enough talent in Wynn, Wide, Shaky Smithson, Sausan Shakerin, David Reed, and Jereme Brooks that they should be able to put points on the board. Especially since we all know that Whittingham will pull out two or three crazy trick plays that will generate some yardage. But they won't be able to get enough.
If Utah wants to win, I think the big first step is to score first. This will kick the crowd in the gut, put even more pressure on Dalton, and give Utah's defense even more motivation. That is my ultra-generic Key To The Game, brought to you by my friend Ron Boone.
Predicted Final Score: TCU 24, Utah 13.
Additional season-ending predictions to ruin my spot-on analysis above: With Alabama losing at Mississippi State this weekend, Texas Christian jumps to #3 in the BCS standings and hopes for an upset somewhere along the way to either Florida or Texas that would get them into the BCS National Championship Game. The hype will be overwhelming, but will all come crashing down the next week during a blizzardy afternoon on the high plains of Laramie in the biggest upset in MWC history. Boise State then throws a parade for their BCS inclusion until they lose the next week to Nevada to finish second place in the WAC. Houston wins out, gets the surprise BCS bid, wins Case Keenum a Heisman Trophy, and embarrasses non-BCS schools everywhere by storming the field after scoring on a Boise State-like hook-and-ladder on the last play of the Sugar Bowl in a 79-7 loss to Alabama. BYU makes their fifth straight appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl, where they lose 20-14 to Arizona. Utah goes to the Armed Forces Bowl, where their bowl winning streak stays alive with an impressive 16-15 come-from-behind victory over Stanford. TCU loses to Nevada in the Poinsettia Bowl, 49-48. Bummers all around.
4. BYU will defeat New Mexico today 42-21. Big early lead, lot of subs in a sloppy second half, and the Lobos will show us exactly why they are #117 in the Joe Rankings. This will set up a big set of games in Provo for the Cougars against Air Force and Utah.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
MAC Daddy
1. The Mid-American Conference has taken center stage in college football this week. They had a game on Tuesday and Wednesday, and two games tonight. The MAC Game of the Week is tomorrow when upstart Temple visits Akron.
Temple has a bit more pressure on them, as all four games played this week have been won by the favorites. Ohio won at Buffalo to improve to 5-1 in their conference. They have two tough games to close out their schedule against Northern Illinois and Temple.
In the other division, it looks like it could easily come down to the last game between Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Both teams won this week against Ball State and Toledo, respectively.
There is always incredible intrigue in the MAC.
2. In the Big East, #24 South Florida was dominated on the road, losing to Rutgers 31-0. USF is now out of the running for their conference championship, while Rutgers kept their hopes alive and will likely garner some top 25 votes with an overal 7-2 record. With two winnable road games coming up for the Scarlet Knights (at Syracuse and at Louisville), they could be a surprising 9-2 going into their season finale against West Virginia.
3. Mailbag. It can take me hours to sift through my email because of the popularity of this blog. Just today, the mailman delivered three bags of fan mail. But I will just choose this email sent to me from my friend Josh, who lives in Connecticut.
"If Boise St and TCU go undefeated, than I think they both should go to a BCS bowl. Pat Forde even says that."
I agree with Pat Forde, if he did indeed say this. They would both deserve a BCS bid. But I don't think it will happen.
According to my BCS projections earlier this week, I've got Oregon State, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, and Cincinnati as the champions of the six BCS conferences. TCU and Florida would grab other automatic berths. And there would be two spots left for the at-large pool. These two spots would be taken by USC and Miami.
The problem is that the BCS wants big-money teams with tons of fans nationally that bring along high TV ratings. None of the non-BCS schools accomplish this, regardless of how good they actually are.
The following would be helpful for Boise State to get an at-large BCS bid (assuming, of course, they go undefeated but finish below TCU):
A. USC wins the Pac 10 and goes to the Rose Bowl. If USC is an at-large candidate, they will be taken. It doesn't matter who is more deserving; the Trojans would be in a big-money game. But Boise would be selected over Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, etc. Only Oregon would be considered over Boise, but I can't see a three-loss Ducks squad being picked over Boise, especially since BSU defeated Oregon.
B. Oklahoma State to lose again. The Cowboys have two losses, but if they win out, it would be hard for the Fiesta Bowl to pass up on a Big XII team, who they have a contract with. Their last three games are against Texas Tech and Colorado, before their finale at Oklahoma.
C. It would be nice for Penn State, Wisconsin, and Miami to all get losses as well. All three teams have two losses right now, but have big names and big fanbases. It would be tempting to take any of them over Boise State. It would also be a tough decision between Boise and Iowa, or even Boise and Georgia Tech (as the Yellow Jackets are so close to the Sugar and Orange Bowls).
Temple has a bit more pressure on them, as all four games played this week have been won by the favorites. Ohio won at Buffalo to improve to 5-1 in their conference. They have two tough games to close out their schedule against Northern Illinois and Temple.
In the other division, it looks like it could easily come down to the last game between Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Both teams won this week against Ball State and Toledo, respectively.
There is always incredible intrigue in the MAC.
2. In the Big East, #24 South Florida was dominated on the road, losing to Rutgers 31-0. USF is now out of the running for their conference championship, while Rutgers kept their hopes alive and will likely garner some top 25 votes with an overal 7-2 record. With two winnable road games coming up for the Scarlet Knights (at Syracuse and at Louisville), they could be a surprising 9-2 going into their season finale against West Virginia.
3. Mailbag. It can take me hours to sift through my email because of the popularity of this blog. Just today, the mailman delivered three bags of fan mail. But I will just choose this email sent to me from my friend Josh, who lives in Connecticut.
"If Boise St and TCU go undefeated, than I think they both should go to a BCS bowl. Pat Forde even says that."
I agree with Pat Forde, if he did indeed say this. They would both deserve a BCS bid. But I don't think it will happen.
According to my BCS projections earlier this week, I've got Oregon State, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, and Cincinnati as the champions of the six BCS conferences. TCU and Florida would grab other automatic berths. And there would be two spots left for the at-large pool. These two spots would be taken by USC and Miami.
The problem is that the BCS wants big-money teams with tons of fans nationally that bring along high TV ratings. None of the non-BCS schools accomplish this, regardless of how good they actually are.
The following would be helpful for Boise State to get an at-large BCS bid (assuming, of course, they go undefeated but finish below TCU):
A. USC wins the Pac 10 and goes to the Rose Bowl. If USC is an at-large candidate, they will be taken. It doesn't matter who is more deserving; the Trojans would be in a big-money game. But Boise would be selected over Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, etc. Only Oregon would be considered over Boise, but I can't see a three-loss Ducks squad being picked over Boise, especially since BSU defeated Oregon.
B. Oklahoma State to lose again. The Cowboys have two losses, but if they win out, it would be hard for the Fiesta Bowl to pass up on a Big XII team, who they have a contract with. Their last three games are against Texas Tech and Colorado, before their finale at Oklahoma.
C. It would be nice for Penn State, Wisconsin, and Miami to all get losses as well. All three teams have two losses right now, but have big names and big fanbases. It would be tempting to take any of them over Boise State. It would also be a tough decision between Boise and Iowa, or even Boise and Georgia Tech (as the Yellow Jackets are so close to the Sugar and Orange Bowls).
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