Mailbag, Predictions, Basketball, Oh my!

1. Mailbag!! I love it when people comment or email me. This email is courtesy of my brother, Rob. He lives in Las Vegas and is a huge UNLV fan.

"i think unlv has a chance against utah! love ya, rob"

I would have to disagree with Rob, since Utah already defeated UNLV this season, 35-15.


2. But maybe Rob was talking about basketball? After Utah lost at home to the Idaho Vandals yesterday, 94-87, it wouldn't shock me in the least if UNLV defeats the Utes a couple of times this season.

Meanwhile, BYU showed off their deep bench with a 70-60 win over MVC foe Bradley. Jimmer Fredette showed that he is not going to shy away from preseason expectations, scoring 25 points. I'm excited to see how this team gels.

On a side note, Bradley is the name of my nephew-in-waiting. My brother Ryan and his wife Erin are expecting his arrival in early December. They live in Chubbuck, Idaho.


3. Huge game tonight in the Mountain West Conference. The Utah/TCU football game has been kind of a tough game to figure out. I know who I am rooting for; thats not an issue. But I'm trying to figure out who I think will win.

From a strict football perspective, it is obvious that TCU has played better than Utah this season. Over the last four games, the Horned Frogs have beaten Colorado State by 38 points; BYU by 31 points in Provo; UNLV by 41 points; and San Diego State on the road by 43 points. Their win at Air Force earlier in the year was by only 3 points, but it is somewhat deceiving because the Falcons scored a touchdown with just seconds remaining to make the score closer. And their win at Clemson--even though it was by only four points--is looking better and better each week as Clemson contends for the ACC championship. They are 9-0 and ranked #6 in The Joe Rankings (#4 in the meaningless BCS standings).

Utah, too, has had a great season thus far. They are 5-0 in the Mountain West, tied atop the standings with TCU. They are 8-1 overall with their lone blemish a 7-point loss at Oregon in a game that they really should have won. But they only come in at #27 in The Joe Rankings because many of their wins have been ugly. It seems that elite teams should beat the dregs of Division I by 30-40 points, like TCU has been doing. But Utah has just been getting by.

They beat #103 Utah State by 18 points, not really putting a stamp on the victory until late in the third quarter. They were tied 7-7 in the fourth quarter at #102 San Jose State, eventually winning by just 10 points. At #94 Colorado State, the Utes were down 17-3 in the third quarter, and didn't take the lead until 3:40 left in the game, winning by 7 points. A couple of games later at home, they squeaked by #45 Air Force in overtime. The next week against #81 Wyoming, the Utes were down 10-9 going into the fourth quarter before escaping with a 12-point win.

Dont get me wrong. Im not alleging that Utah is a mediocre team. Quite to the contrary, they have proven themselves a great team, as only great teams can play sloppy and still come away with win after win after win. Utahs defense is elite. Putting the Oregon loss aside, Utah hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game (and even in their loss at Oregon, they only gave up 24).

Clearly, the difference between TCU and Utah is that Utah's offense is holding the Utes back, while the Horned Frogs' offense has taken off. Utah was struggling with Terrance Cain at quarterback, and now they are starting true freshman Jordan Wynn behind center. Though he has looked pretty good in six quarters of play, his success has come against Wyoming and New Mexico, which arent even on the same orbit as TCUs defense.

I expect Utah's defense to hold TCU to 24 points. Their defense will be fired up in the underdog role. Kyle Whittingham will come up with a great game plan to stifle Andy Dalton. The Horned Frogs will be too amped up with the new uniforms, the sellout crowd, and the high national attention with their #4 BCS ranking and the ESPN College Gameday appearance on campus. But they will settle down and end up with 24 points.

Unfortunately for Utah, extreme motivation and getting pumped up can only take you so far on the offensive side of the ball. On offense, you want execution, cool-headedness, and consistency, which don't easily come with a freshman quarterback on the road against one of the nation's best defenses in the Game of the Week. Eddie Wide has filled in admirably all season long for the injured Matt Asiata, but he is by no means a superstar of the caliber of which the Horned Frogs haven't already faced (and stopped). The receivers will be facing the best defensive secondary that they've seen all season, and there will be no room for error from Wynn.

Their offense has enough talent in Wynn, Wide, Shaky Smithson, Sausan Shakerin, David Reed, and Jereme Brooks that they should be able to put points on the board. Especially since we all know that Whittingham will pull out two or three crazy trick plays that will generate some yardage. But they won't be able to get enough.

If Utah wants to win, I think the big first step is to score first. This will kick the crowd in the gut, put even more pressure on Dalton, and give Utah's defense even more motivation. That is my ultra-generic Key To The Game, brought to you by my friend Ron Boone.

Predicted Final Score: TCU 24, Utah 13.

Additional season-ending predictions to ruin my spot-on analysis above: With Alabama losing at Mississippi State this weekend, Texas Christian jumps to #3 in the BCS standings and hopes for an upset somewhere along the way to either Florida or Texas that would get them into the BCS National Championship Game. The hype will be overwhelming, but will all come crashing down the next week during a blizzardy afternoon on the high plains of Laramie in the biggest upset in MWC history. Boise State then throws a parade for their BCS inclusion until they lose the next week to Nevada to finish second place in the WAC. Houston wins out, gets the surprise BCS bid, wins Case Keenum a Heisman Trophy, and embarrasses non-BCS schools everywhere by storming the field after scoring on a Boise State-like hook-and-ladder on the last play of the Sugar Bowl in a 79-7 loss to Alabama. BYU makes their fifth straight appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl, where they lose 20-14 to Arizona. Utah goes to the Armed Forces Bowl, where their bowl winning streak stays alive with an impressive 16-15 come-from-behind victory over Stanford. TCU loses to Nevada in the Poinsettia Bowl, 49-48. Bummers all around.


4. BYU will defeat New Mexico today 42-21. Big early lead, lot of subs in a sloppy second half, and the Lobos will show us exactly why they are #117 in the Joe Rankings. This will set up a big set of games in Provo for the Cougars against Air Force and Utah.